Kanlaon Volcano’s rising magma is now less than five kilometers from the crater, prompting close monitoring by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), according to Director Teresito Bacolcol.
This proximity raises the possibility of either an explosive eruption or a halt in the magma’s ascent. Bacolcol stated that Phivolcs has observed swelling on the volcano’s eastern flank, indicating magma accumulation near the crater. Inflation on all sides would suggest a continued magma rise, increasing the likelihood of an eruption.
Phivolcs’ assessment of the magma’s location is based on various parameters, including data from tilt meters and Electronic Distance Measurement.
Bacolcol outlined three potential scenarios: a slow magma rise that could result in lava flow from the crater; a swift magma rise that could trigger a powerful eruption; and magma stasis, where the magma’s movement could cease.
Bacolcol explained that the most alarming scenario is a swift magma rise. He said this could lead to raising the Alert Level to 4 and extending the danger zone up to 10 kilometers, potentially resulting in hazardous pyroclastic density currents.
In the event of a slow magma rise, Bacolcol explained that an explosive eruption is unlikely, though the volcano would remain at Alert Level 3.
The least alarming scenario is magma stasis. In this case, Bacolcol said the magma’s movement would cease, eventually leading to decreased activity and a lowering of the alert level from 3 to 2.
